Macro or Noise
When a U.S. economic release lands, what did the market actually do? Here is the reported figure, the measured move in Treasuries or the dollar that day, and how unusual that move was against every comparable release back to 2000.
What just happened
The most recent U.S. releases, and what the market actually did that day — measured against a normal day for that year.
Tools
Look things up yourself.
Market Reaction Explorer
Pick a U.S. release, a market, a holding period and an era, and see the measured reaction versus a normal day. Free, interactive, public data.
U.S. Economic Calendar
Every upcoming U.S. economic release — CPI, jobs, PPI, PCE, GDP, retail, jobless claims, FOMC — with how much each one has typically moved markets.
US Economic Release History Since 2000
1,667 U.S. releases since 2000 — CPI, PPI, jobs, PCE, retail — with the reported number and how Treasuries and the dollar moved that day.
Release Log
A running record: every recent CPI, jobs, PPI, PCE and retail release, what it reported, and exactly how Treasuries or the dollar moved that day.
CPI Release Dates 2026: Schedule + Market Reaction to Each One
Every 2026 U.S. CPI release date at 8:30 a.m. ET, with the measured 10-year Treasury move on each one — not just the dates. Next release: Aug 12, 2026.
Release by release
What each scheduled U.S. release does to the market it matters most for.
Jobs Report (NFP) Impact on Treasury Yields
Jobs-report days are the biggest scheduled mover of Treasury yields, about ×2 a normal day, but the direction is unpredictable. 36 releases measured.
CPI Impact on Treasury Yields
On CPI day the 10-year Treasury swings about ×1.58 a normal day, but the direction is a coin flip. 37 releases measured, plus the latest reaction.
Fed Rate Decision Impact on Treasury Yields
On FOMC decision days the 10-year Treasury moves about ×1.4 a normal day, but the direction is not a reliable rule. 24 decisions measured against a baseline.
PPI Impact on Treasury Yields
PPI moves the rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury about ×1.5 a normal day, with no reliable direction. The 10-year reacts less. 36 releases measured.
Retail Sales Impact on Treasury Yields
Retail sales barely moves the 10-year Treasury: about ×1.3 a normal day, just short of statistically significant. 38 releases measured against a baseline.
GDP Impact on Treasury Yields
GDP describes a quarter that already ended, so Treasury yields move about as much as a normal day when it lands. 12 advance estimates measured.
Jobless Claims Impact on Treasury Yields
Weekly jobless claims move the 10-year Treasury about ×1.15 a normal day — not significant, and with 150 releases that is a confident no.
CPI Impact on the US Dollar
CPI moves Treasury yields hard but the dollar only mildly: about ×1.3 a normal day, with no reliable direction. 37 releases measured against a baseline.
PCE Release Impact on the US Dollar
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge barely moves the dollar: PCE days run about ×0.7 a normal day, because CPI already told the story. 35 releases.
Comparisons across releases
Which releases matter most, where on the curve, and why.
Which Economic Releases Move Treasury Yields Most?
A release-day map across 3M-30Y Treasuries: jobs and CPI move the 2-5 year belly most, up to ×2.35 normal. Direction is unpredictable everywhere.
Why Some Economic Releases Move Markets and Others Don't
The jobs report moves Treasuries at ×2 a normal day while GDP barely registers. One variable explains most of it: how much the market didn't know.
Do Economic Releases Move the Dollar or Oil?
Seven major U.S. releases mapped against the dollar and crude oil: none reliably moves either on the day, and PCE day is quieter than normal.
How we test
The complete release-day grid: 8 U.S. releases against 9 markets, with the full method and multiple-testing correction. Most cells are honest nulls.
How this works
The method, in plain language, and the terms used throughout.
What is an event study? How we test whether news moves markets
A plain-language guide to the method behind every result here: baselines, direction versus size, significance, and multiple-testing correction.
Glossary
Plain-language definitions of the economic releases, markets, and statistical terms used across Macro or Noise.