Macro or Noise
Most market commentary explains what should happen. We look at what actually happened — comparing major economic releases against historical market data, with a baseline and a significance test on every claim.
Guides
U.S. CPI Release Dates 2026
Full 2026 schedule of U.S. CPI release dates from the BLS — all at 8:30 a.m. ET. Plus: what actually happens to Treasury yields on CPI day.
Does CPI move the 10-year Treasury yield?
On CPI release day, the direction of the 10-year Treasury yield is unpredictable (p=0.94) — but the size of the move is about 1.75× a normal day (p=0.002).
Does a Fed rate decision move Treasury yields?
On Fed (FOMC) decision days, the 10-year Treasury yield swings about 1.4× a normal day (p=0.035). Yields leaned lower across 2023–2025, but that direction is not a reliable rule.
Do jobs reports (NFP) move Treasury yields?
On U.S. jobs-report days, the 10-year Treasury yield swings about 2× a normal day (p<0.001) — the biggest scheduled move of the macro releases we have tested. But the direction is unpredictable (p=0.55).
Does PCE inflation move the U.S. dollar?
PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — but the U.S. dollar barely reacts. On PCE release days the dollar moves about as much as a normal day (0.7×), with no consistent direction.
Does GDP move Treasury yields?
GDP measures the previous quarter — and by the time it lands, the market already knows. On GDP-release days the 10-year Treasury yield moves about as much as a normal day (1.1×, not significant), with no consistent direction.