How we test — and the full results grid

This is the transparency page: the complete grid behind every guide on the site, plus exactly how each number is produced. Nothing is cherry-picked — the nulls and the near-misses are shown alongside the few robust results.

How each number is produced

Event study, look-ahead protected. For each release we measure the market's change from the prior close to the close at the end of the holding window. Nothing uses information that was not available before the release.
A baseline, always. The release-window move is compared against the unconditional distribution of same-length moves on all days — what a "normal" stretch looks like. Without a baseline, every release looks dramatic.
Two separate questions. - Direction — a one-sample t-test of the signed move against zero. Can you predict which way the market goes? - Size — the average absolute release-window move divided by the baseline (a ratio), tested by bootstrap. Does the market move more than usual, regardless of direction?
Multiple-testing correction. Run one grid of ~70 cells and a few will look "significant" by chance. We apply a Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery-rate correction (q=0.05) across the grid. A result is only called robust if it survives that correction.

The full release-day grid

Each cell is the average absolute move on release day versus a normal day. Bold = survives the multiple-testing correction. Everything else — including plenty of numbers above 1.0 — does not, and we treat those as not robust. Yields are in basis points; the dollar and oil in percent returns; the ratio is unit-free.

Release	N	3M	2Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	2s10s	USD	WTI	Brent
CPI	30	×0.49	×1.77	×1.93	×1.75	×1.41	×1.17	×1.41	×1.05	×0.91
PPI	36	×0.52	×1.48	×1.47	×1.33	×1.07	×1.23	×1.00	×0.78	×0.86
NFP (jobs)	36	×0.61	×2.35	×2.27	×1.97	×1.48	×1.36	×1.38	×1.02	×1.12
PCE	35	×0.44	×0.80	×0.96	×0.97	×0.92	×0.81	×0.67	×0.62	×0.63
GDP (low N)	12	×0.27	×1.37	×1.33	×1.12	×0.91	×1.12	×0.54	×0.85	×0.79
Retail sales	38	×0.45	×1.29	×1.42	×1.32	×1.08	×0.97	×1.04	×0.88	×1.00
Jobless claims	150	×0.44	×1.06	×1.17	×1.15	×1.00	×1.12	×1.02	×0.77	×0.85
FOMC	24	×0.52	×1.61	×1.74	×1.45	×0.99	×1.08	×0.80	×0.86	×0.91

What survives, and what doesn't

Only five cells are robust: CPI at the 5- and 10-year, and the jobs report at the 2-, 5-, and 10-year. Inflation and jobs data, at the belly of the curve. That is the entire robust set.
A lot looks elevated but isn't. PPI, retail sales, the FOMC decision, and the dollar around CPI all post ratios well above 1.0 — and none survive the correction. This is the whole point of the page: large-looking numbers are common; robust ones are rare.
The 3-month bill is calmer on release days, not louder (every ratio below 0.6) — it is anchored to the policy rate, not to a single data print.
Direction is unpredictable everywhere. Not one cell in the grid shows a robust signed direction. Across every release and every market, you cannot predict which way the move goes.

Why most of the grid is "not robust"

Of the ~70 cells, after correction the breakdown is: a handful robust, a middle band that is nominally significant but fails multiple-testing (we flag these for review, not publication), and the rest genuine nulls. We deliberately do not spin each cell into its own page — that would be low-value duplicate content. The grid lives here, on one page, in full.

Caveats

Adjacent maturities move together, so the effective number of independent tests is smaller than the cell count; the correction is conservative.
GDP has only 12 advance releases in the window (marked low N) — shown for completeness, not relied on.
No surprise-versus-forecast conditioning: this is the release-day reaction itself, not a reaction split by how far the number missed expectations. (Forecast/consensus data is proprietary and outside our public-domain sources.)
Historical statistics for informational purposes only, not financial advice. Results may vary with sample, period, and baseline definition.

Read the write-ups

Which U.S. data releases move the Treasury curve?
Do U.S. data releases move the dollar or oil?
Or any single-release guide from the home page.

Sources

All series are U.S. government public domain (17 U.S.C. §105), retrieved via FRED:

Treasury constant-maturity yields and the 10Y-2Y spread, Federal Reserve Board — DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS5, DGS10, DGS30, T10Y2Y.
Broad U.S. Dollar Index, Federal Reserve Board — DTWEXBGS.
WTI and Brent crude, U.S. Energy Information Administration — DCOILWTICO, DCOILBRENTEU.
Release dates: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI, PPI, jobs report), Bureau of Economic Analysis (PCE, GDP), Census Bureau (retail sales), Department of Labor (jobless claims), Federal Reserve (FOMC).