About Macro or Noise

This site is an experiment.

Most financial content repeats intuition — "hot inflation is bad for bonds," "rate cuts lift gold." We test those intuitions against historical data.

Some will hold up. Some won't.

The goal isn't to be right. It's to measure.

How we work

• Public data only. Every figure comes from U.S. government sources in the public domain: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and the Federal Reserve (via FRED).
• A baseline, every time. We never report a move in isolation. Each result is compared against a baseline of normal days, with a significance test, so you can see whether an effect is real or just noise.
• Honest verdicts. If the data says a popular belief doesn't hold up, we say so — clearly.

What we are not

We are not affiliated with any government agency, and nothing here is financial or investment advice. Please read our Disclaimer.